The Eagle in the Room: A Crossroads for Thai–U.S. Relations

By Panuwat Arunrung

As of early 2025, U.S.-Thailand relations are facing growing tensions. As one of the closest allies in ASEAN, Thailand, whose relations with the U.S. have fluctuated since the end of the Cold War, is facing uncertainty from President Donald Trump’s policy. Adding to the challenge, Thailand’s recent steps have somewhat complicated its relations with the U.S. However, despite the worsening situation, there may still be chances for maintaining good relations between the two nations.

Strains in U.S.–Thai Relations

Earlier this year, significant developments strained U.S.-Thailand relations when the Thai government decided to send Uyghurs back to China. In response, Marco Rubio, now Secretary of State, stated during his Senate confirmation hearing that he would lobby Thailand not to deport the Uyghurs to China. In February, Thailand ultimately deported the Uyghurs to China, prompting condemnation from the Department of State and resulting in the restriction of U.S. visas for high-ranking Thai officials involved in the deportation. It is important to recognize that Thailand has harmed its relations with one of its key allies in Washington, the Department of State. Since the Cold War, the State Department has played a crucial role in helping Thailand negotiate with U.S. presidents and policymakers. Even today, the State Department still considers Thailand a close ally in the Indo-Pacific. Ignoring the stance of Rubio, an advocate for human rights, may reduce Thailand’s chances of negotiating with President Trump’s administration on tariffs and future policies that impact Thailand.

Thailand’s Dilemmas

One reason behind Thailand's decision is its close relationship with China. Although Thailand’s foreign policy continues to prioritize its long-standing concept of not choosing between great powers and instead using their rivalry to serve its national interest, the way Thailand is currently implementing its policy reveals a tendency toward China. Deporting Uyghur detainees to China, despite the position of the U.S. Secretary of State, harmed both Thailand’s reputation in the international community and its relations with the U.S. This act can be seen as hedging toward China because Thailand gains economic benefits from this relationship. To protect its economic interests with China, the Thai government deported Uyghurs despite straining its ties with the U.S. While Thailand benefits economically from its ties with China through trade, tourism, and investment, there are also negative consequences, especially involving Chinese organized crime operating in Thailand and neighboring countries.

These activities are damaging Thailand’s interests, particularly its own people, including issues such as scam call centers, human trafficking, and Chinese factories in Thailand that impair the environment and the quality of life of local Thai communities. In addition, these problems harm China’s image among the Thai public. If the Thai government wants to effectively benefit from Chinese economic cooperation, it needs to implement stronger regulations to mitigate harm. For example, it should enforce strict immigration checks, as criminal gangs are exploiting Thailand’s visa-free policy to enter the country; intensify scrutiny of Chinese companies using Thai nominees; and investigate Thai officials involved with Chinese criminals. The Thai government should also urge the Chinese government to take action against Chinese gangs operating in Thailand and ASEAN. Of course, Thailand must pursue its interests with China, but it also needs to protect its interests by showing its strength through soft but firm negotiations with both Beijing and Washington.

Another issue that must be considered on the Thai side is the silence of the Thai Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) during the Uyghur deportation case. According to a former Thai diplomat, the Thai government did not pay attention to professional Thai diplomats. He suggested that the government should have listened more to the MFA in advising and implementing foreign policy. This highlights the internal political problems in Thailand that are undermining not only its relations with the U.S. but also its national interest. If that is the case, the Thai government needs to give the MFA more room to conduct foreign policy inclusively in order to avoid further mistakes that could hurt the country. Most importantly, this would help maintain a balanced dependency between the U.S. and China. If Thailand’s foreign policy truly aims to balance the influence of great powers, it must be carefully calculated and implemented by competent officials.

A Silver Lining from the U.S.?

Despite a rough patch, there are some positive developments from the U.S. side that might help maintain U.S.-Thai relations. One bright sign is the nomination of Michael G. DeSombre, former U.S. Ambassador to Thailand during President Trump’s first term, to be Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs at the Department of State. This is an important position in shaping U.S. foreign policy toward the Indo-Pacific, a strategically vital region for U.S. interests. In his testimony and responses to the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, DeSombre emphasized the importance of working with U.S. allies in the Indo-Pacific. He stated that his approach would prioritize building personal relationships with nations to help address issues affecting U.S. interests. Regarding Thailand, he emphasized U.S.-Thai economic cooperation; however, he did not mention the current problems affecting bilateral relations.

Having DeSombre in this position may be a good sign for Thailand, as it could strengthen support in Washington for prioritizing the Indo-Pacific as a strategic region. He regarded this region as a high priority for U.S. foreign policy and emphasized both promoting U.S. strength and security by cooperating with the allies and expanding commercial opportunities. These will benefit both Thailand and ASEAN countries. Given DeSombre’s background and the long-standing alliance between the two nations, the Thai government may view him as a “key man” and see an opportunity to improve Thai-U.S. relations and maintain strong ties with the State Department.

Furthermore, both sides may find additional diplomatic channels, both official and unofficial, through which the Thai government can build personal relationships and maintain close contact with DeSombre. This could help mitigate future problems and improve relations with Washington.

This relationship can strengthen both Thai and American interests in economic areas such as tariff negotiations and investments by U.S. companies in Thailand or Thai companies in the U.S. It can also enhance military cooperation, including International Military Education and Training (IMET), Foreign Military Sales (FMS), and joint military exercises.

Where do Thailand and the U.S. go from here?

For now, U.S.-Thai relations are stable, and there is still room for negotiation. However, any miscalculations from either side could lead to negative consequences, not only for Thailand but also for ASEAN countries. For the U.S., maintaining strong relations in the Indo-Pacific is not an easy task, especially as President Trump’s second-term policies are creating uncertainty among U.S. allies in the region. His “Peace through Strength” and “America First” approaches are pressuring close U.S. allies to increase their defense spending, another burden in the ongoing trade war. Thailand must carefully calculate its balancing act between the U.S. and China. Thailand also needs to strengthen cooperation with other ASEAN countries and partners outside the region in order to amplify its collective voice when negotiating with both Washington and Beijing. Most importantly, Thailand must utilize all capable and potential organizations, governmental and private, to formulate and implement effective foreign policy to manage future challenges.